Who Will Succeed Bio?
By Abdul Rahman Bah
Sierra Leone’s political landscape is already shifting into a new phase, even though the next presidential and general elections are still ahead. The country is moving from the politics of post-2023 disputes into what increasingly looks like an early campaign for 2028, with the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), the opposition All People’s Congress (APC), and emerging political actors positioning themselves for a contest that could redefine the country’s political direction.
At the centre of this changing political environment is the unresolved question of electoral trust. The 2023 elections left deep political disagreements between the SLPP and APC, with the opposition challenging the credibility of the process. International observers and democratic institutions have also highlighted concerns surrounding the management of the elections and the broader political environment. The disagreement eventually contributed to the Agreement for National Unity and the establishment of the Tripartite process aimed at addressing electoral and governance concerns.
The significance of the Tripartite recommendations cannot therefore be separated from the politics of 2028. They are no longer simply technical recommendations about elections. They have become a major test of whether the governing party and the opposition can build enough confidence to prevent another politically divisive election.
The political temperature rose sharply again in 2026 when APC elected representatives stayed away from Parliament and local councils amid disagreements over electoral reforms and the appointment of the leadership of the electoral commission. The boycott eventually ended following engagement involving international and regional partners, including ECOWAS, the United Nations and the Commonwealth.
That episode exposed one of the biggest weaknesses in Sierra Leone’s democratic development: political institutions can continue to exist while political trust remains dangerously fragile.
The return of APC representatives to Parliament and councils was therefore more than an administrative development. It was a reminder that Sierra Leone’s political stability remains heavily dependent on dialogue between the two dominant parties. The government needs an effective opposition to strengthen accountability, while the opposition needs functioning democratic institutions through which it can challenge government policies and mobilise public support.
President Julius Maada Bio and the SLPP enter this period with the advantage of incumbency, control of the executive and considerable political machinery. The administration will likely seek to present its record in human capital development, agriculture, infrastructure, energy, education and other areas as evidence that the country is moving forward. At the same time, the government will face increasingly aggressive scrutiny over economic pressures, public-sector performance, corruption allegations, governance and the implementation of electoral reforms.
The political opposition, meanwhile, faces a different challenge. APC remains the principal challenger to the SLPP, but winning the next election will require more than criticism of the government. The party must convince voters that it has developed a credible alternative programme for the economy, employment, agriculture, infrastructure, governance and national reconciliation.
This is particularly important because Sierra Leone’s politics has historically been dominated by the APC-SLPP rivalry. The two parties have alternated in power for decades, creating a political system in which elections often become a referendum on personalities, party loyalty and regional strength rather than a sustained contest over policy. Analysts of the 2028 contest have already identified the continued dominance of the two parties as one of the defining features of the country’s political landscape.
But there are signs that the electorate may be demanding something different.
Young people represent a powerful political constituency, and their concerns increasingly centre on employment, cost of living, education, skills, migration, technology and economic opportunity. For many young Sierra Leoneans, traditional party slogans are becoming less persuasive than tangible improvements in their daily lives.
This creates an uncomfortable question for both major parties: can they continue relying primarily on historical loyalty while an increasingly frustrated population demands measurable results?
The answer could determine the character of the 2028 election.
Another major political trend is the emergence of succession politics within the SLPP. With President Bio constitutionally approaching the end of his presidency, attention is increasingly shifting toward who could eventually inherit the ruling party’s political machinery. Several names are already being discussed publicly as potential future contenders, although no definitive succession arrangement has been established.
That succession question could become one of the most important internal political battles in Sierra Leone. The SLPP’s ability to manage its transition without damaging party unity may determine whether it enters 2028 as a disciplined governing movement or a divided political organisation.
APC faces a similar challenge. Its own leadership and flagbearer question will become increasingly important as 2028 approaches. The party must balance the influence of established figures with demands for generational renewal and a stronger connection with younger voters.
The constitutional debate has added another layer to the political uncertainty. Parliament has been dealing with proposed constitutional amendments, including changes that could have implications for the electoral system. The debate has already generated political controversy, particularly around the question of how electoral rules should be changed and whether reforms enjoy sufficient political consensus.
This is where Sierra Leone’s political leadership faces a critical test.
Electoral reform cannot be viewed merely as a battle between government and opposition. The rules governing elections belong to the entire country. Any reform that is perceived as being designed to advantage one political party risks undermining public confidence before voters even reach the ballot box.
Conversely, refusing necessary reforms simply because they are proposed by the government could also weaken the democratic process.
The real issue, therefore, is not whether Sierra Leone should reform its electoral system. It is whether the country can build sufficient consensus around those reforms so that both the winners and losers of the next election have confidence in the process.
International partners appear increasingly concerned about this question. The 2026 engagement between the government and APC demonstrated that Sierra Leone’s political disagreements continue to attract regional and international attention. President Bio has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to dialogue and peace, while the international guarantors have pushed the parties toward implementation of the commitments under the Agreement for National Unity.
The danger is that political competition could once again become more important than institutional development.
Sierra Leone does not need another election that is followed by months of political confrontation. The country needs an electoral process in which political parties can compete fiercely, but accept the institutions governing the competition.
The opposition must be free to criticise government without intimidation. Government institutions must be able to operate without partisan interference. The media must be able to investigate both government and opposition. Civil society must have the space to scrutinise political decisions. And electoral institutions must demonstrate independence, transparency and professionalism.
Freedom House’s 2026 assessment continues to identify political and civic restrictions, concerns about assembly and corruption as important challenges to Sierra Leone’s democratic environment.
That means the political trend should not be measured simply by which party is currently ahead.
The deeper trend is whether Sierra Leone is moving from personality-driven politics toward institution-driven democracy.
The 2028 election will provide the answer.
For the SLPP, the challenge is to transform incumbency into public confidence without using state power in a manner that deepens political suspicion. For APC, the challenge is to transform opposition strength into a convincing national alternative rather than relying solely on dissatisfaction with the government.
For smaller parties and independent political actors, the challenge is even greater. They must demonstrate that Sierra Leonean politics can move beyond the traditional two-party contest and offer voters credible alternatives.
Ultimately, the most important political constituency may not be APC or SLPP supporters. It may be the ordinary voter who is tired of political confrontation and wants roads, electricity, jobs, affordable food, quality education, accountable leadership and functioning public institutions.
Sierra Leone’s next political chapter will therefore not be decided only in party offices or Parliament. It will be decided in the minds of voters who are increasingly asking a simple question: which political leadership can actually improve their lives?
The road to 2028 has already begun. The real challenge is ensuring that the competition for power does not once again become a competition that divides the country.
Instead, Sierra Leone needs an election that strengthens democracy, restores confidence in institutions and proves that political disagreement can exist without threatening national stability.
